In previoius posts, it was said that prices were the lowest they have been for the past 30 years. The UK housing downfall has started prices are down 4.4% since last year and there are no signs of it slowing down. In the US despite attempts to slow down the drop, house prices continue to drop continually. The reason why the recession as some believe it to be is happening is quite well known. But the complications with house pricing are less obvious. Buyers and sellers should be careful of what’s ahead. However housing markets are not your average markets, they are not as volatile as other markets like oil. Houses just do not prove to be great assets anymore, people have to live in them and can not just sell when they feel that they can get a good price for it and neither can they just go and buy a property when it is cheap. Not to mention the all the other processes involved solicitors, tax and estate agents. The good points of a slow housing market is their prices adjust slowly and once they start to move they tend to keep moving in that direction for some time. This decline will not end anytime soon.
With that said, during a decline, prices are not the best way to determine the exact situation. With people being reluctant to move, anyone who does not have to sell stays where they are and people with the choice to buy wait to see if prices will fall further. The few transactions that do go ahead are like lagging indicators of the prices that would clear the market. A much better guide to the market is the transaction volumes concerned, the 30% drop said earlier in previous posts shows that the market is in a situation. Prices may seem stable but during a decline unless volumes have reached previous levels, beware of quicksand.
During declines bring confusing times, is how different areas and places can be so different. Prices in one location can be low while the other can have the sky as the limit. There can be many reasons for this but do not be fooled, nowhere is invulnerable to shifting house prices.
A rocky road ahead, like most of us predicted the housing market is slowing down, the property craze seems to have run its course and the bubble is about to burst. For many of us we have witnessed a turn in the economy. With the current economic situation in terms of the credit crunch it is affecting mortgage lenders there is no question about that. The credit crunch in the US has had a huge effect in the UK, there have been stricter controls to whom banks lend to, there has been a steep drop in mortgage lending, with less than 3000 products offered to consumers today compared to May 2007 in which there were as much as 11,000 products. This has made it increasingly difficult for first time buyers to get on the property ladder as they will have to save a lot more for deposits or wait till they get a better paying job but waiting for that could be too late. As more of us are watching our spending carefully, there seems to be fewer buyers out there and this will eventually cause an excessive supply of homes with a lack of demand, which could result in the price of properties continuing to fall dramatically.
Another blow to our pockets is the intensity of the cost of living, noticeably the price hikes in everyday essentials such as petrol and food, with this in mind many of us are holding back, that means stepping away from the property market, keeping every penny in our pockets and being extremely conservative with our spending. It looks set that the UK is about to follow suit of the Americans and possibly head towards a recession.
Although the government has tried to stimulate spending within the economy by cutting interest rates to 5%, this may not necessarily improve the situation within the property market for home owners. Reduced interest rates as well as declining house prices, has not boosted spending or maintained property value which has had a knock on effect on the wealth effect in which people perceive themselves to be richer but in this case are worse off, in which case the wealth effect is playing in the opposite direction of the fall in house prices. An example of this is when, with a £100k mortgage and a drop of 0.25% in interest rates would lead to fall in monthly payments of £21. On the other hand a drop in house prices of 0.25% a month would lead to a loss of equity of roughly £250 on a £100,000 property. The home owner ends up paying £21 less then usual a month but the house price drops makes the interest rate cut redundant making the home owner lose equity in the long run.
With the current economic state, getting a mortgage has become incredibly difficult as lenders have become quite demanding to who they will offer mortgages to and when they do offer them, the rate will not be cheap. Despite this, its not all bad news, as property prices seem to be unstable, more people are turning to renting, this new trend has increased rental prices for landlords and seen the sales of buy to let market rise in the past few months.
Just recently it has been predicted that the number of properties sold in the UK this year will be at its lowest for 30 years. Which is approximately 30% lower then 2007.
This prediction was made by a housing expert by the name of Richard Donnell. He made this prediction as an uncertain housing market is bringing about many would be first time buyers to wait and observe the market in case prices drop even further. We all know that the market is stabilizing and not booming as it once was. Don’t get me wrong its not totally flopped but a friend of mines apartments market value dropped £40,000 in the space of 3 months, it’s a good job they were buying to live and not buying to let. With these gloomy forecast properties are staying on much longer then they used too regardless if they are excellent buys the market is just so unpredictable nowadays it just knocks all the confidence out of the most poised buyer.
Another recent announcement from the council of mortgage lenders to dampen our spirits, they are predicting that there will be a 7% fall in prices in 2008.These announcements are like air raid sirens in the property world, reading from a newspaper a home seller was just finding impossible to get any interest to sell. They had to reduce asking prices by 15% to even get the faintest of interest. Eventually when they did get interest potential buyers are just sitting back and waiting for more house price falls and cashing in when they get cheaper. This is proving to be effective for the buyers but for the sellers some just can’t afford to cut prices. With more people renting instead of buying its making sellers jobs harder ten fold, making properties on the market stay for much longer and some just not being sold at all. One estate agent believes that house prices will drop by at least another 5% this year.
After huge speculation over the forth coming interest rates, people’s predictions have been confirmed. We at Rent Home Manchester, probably like most of you out there, believed this was going to be the inevitable outcome. On the 9th of November 2006, interest rates rose from 4.75% to 5%, its highest level since September 2001.
Mervyn King (head of Monetary Policy Committee); decided upon this rise due to number of reasons, firstly there has been a sharp increase in prices in all aspect of the economy. In particularly the housing market has seen considerable prices rises, as house price growth has exceeded expectations due to a shortage of supply. Following this we have seen positive economic growth, an increase in consumer confidence and in particular a substantial rise in energy prices.
The rise in interest rates is necessary in order to curb inflationary pressures, especially house prices which are continuing to rise about 8% every year, and at the same time needed to promote economic prosperity. However this news won’t come lightly to home owners, as this will no doubt increase their mortgage payments. For example a person with an £150.000 mortgage will expect roughly a £20 increase a month on their existing mortgage. Consequently this will place added debt problems with many more increasingly finding it difficult to make repayments readily, on an already over stretched debt nation.
Although we at Rent a Home Manchester, believe the rise in interest rates won’t have a significant effect on peoples spending habits, nor will it cool down the property market. As we have seen in the past years it hasn’t been borrowing costs affecting the housing market, instead it has been the supply and demand of houses. We are still witnessing a shortage of supply and considerable high demand; therefore prices can only continue to rise rapidly. We expect property prices to rise in the near future, due to the consequence of population growth, especially the expansion of the European Union, and a trend of number of people living alone, but remember this is only Rent a Home Manchester own opinion.
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